Since our March 2021 Survey, we experienced rioting and looting in KwaZulu Natal and other provinces during July. The subsequent month-on-month data does not show a noticeable change in bank lending as a result thereof.

Is it a question of shortness of memory on the part of financial institutions, or is it just a matter of the prospect of huge returns making risky investment decisions worthwhile? Whatever the motivation, the Archegos implosion has prompted regulators in the US, UK, Switzerland and Japan to investigate the risk controls of eight major banks including Credit Suisse, Nomura, Morgan Stanley, UBS, MUFG and Mizuho, who collectively suffered losses in excess of US$10 billion.

The most popular method of measuring competition in banking is the Herfindahl-Hirshman index that measures concentration as a proxy for competition. We examine 17 different mathematical models used to measure competition and begin framing the challenges that need to be considered to ensure that policy decisions, driven by competition concerns, will have the greatest positive impact on social welfare.

As at the end of March 2021, the total domestic assets of the South African banking industry were approximately R5 521 billion. This was about R25 billion lower than the total balance sheet of the banks in our previous Survey, at approximately R5 546 billion. The Survey in March 2020 recorded an extraordinary month-on-month increase of R258 billion. Month-on-month growth in total industry balance sheets since then have been negative for 6 out of the 12 months until March 2021.